Watch this: Use a PERT analysis
You can use a Program, Evaluation, and Review Technique (PERT) analysis to determine a realistic duration for your tasks, by taking into account optimistic, expected, and pessimistic duration estimates.
In this demo, I provide optimistic, expected, and pessimistic durations for my tasks, and then calculate the duration using the PERT Analysis tools in Microsoft Office Project 2007. I also change the default PERT weights to values that more accurately represent my estimates, and then recalculate the durations.
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